[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":44},["ShallowReactive",2],{"blog-cok-donemli-satin-alma-en":3},[4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20,22,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,38,40,42],{"p":5},"It is October. New-crop corn is coming onto the market and prices are at their lowest of the year. The purchasing manager wants to buy corn now for February and March as well, knowing that prices have risen noticeably in spring in past years. The finance manager asks about the money tied up in every tonne stored and the cost of storage. The mill's free silo capacity is limited too. Who is right depends on how prices actually move and on how these limits work together.",{"h2":7},"What does buying a tonne today earn?",{"p":9},"Take an example, with illustrative numbers. Corn costs 9,300 TRY a tonne today. The purchasing team expects 9,500 in the second month, 9,900 in the third and 10,200 in the fourth. Storing a tonne for a month costs 90 TRY, including insurance, shrink and financing.",{"p":11},"Buying today a tonne to be used in the second month costs 9,300 + 90, that is 9,390 TRY. Buying it in the second month costs 9,500. The gain is 110 TRY a tonne. Buying today a tonne to be used in the fourth month costs 9,300 + 3 × 90, that is 9,570 TRY. Buying it in the fourth month costs 10,200. The gain is 630 TRY a tonne. If the forecast holds, each tonne bought today earns more the further away the month it is bought for.",{"h2":13},"When silo space is the limit",{"p":15},"The mill uses 2,500 tonnes of corn a month and, apart from this month's needs, has only 4,000 tonnes of free silo capacity. Buying everything today is not possible. Now the question changes: which months should the limited silo space be given to, and in which month should the rest be bought?",{"p":17},"Questions like this are hard to solve by hand, because every month's decision affects the next month's silo space. Stock used in the second month frees room for a new purchase for the third. Multi-period planning solves all the months together and decides at the same time how much to buy, store and use in each month. The plan also gives the shadow price of silo capacity. That value shows what one more tonne of silo space would earn, and it tells you directly up to what price rented storage makes sense.",{"h2":19},"Formulas change with the period too",{"p":21},"The real strength of multi-period planning is that it does not treat purchasing apart from the formulas. If corn becomes expensive in the fourth month, that month's formulas may shift to wheat or barley. Storing corn for the fourth month then earns less than expected, because the formula will use less corn that month anyway. A mill that plans purchasing and formulation separately cannot see this interaction.",{"p":23},"Contracts are part of the same plan. If you know you will take delivery of a set amount of soybean meal on a set date, that delivery goes straight into that month's stock and silo space. If a ship is late or a contract is cancelled, solving the plan again with the current information automatically corrects the plan for the other months as well.",{"h2":25},"Feed demand is a forecast too",{"p":27},"In a multi-period plan, not only prices but also how much feed will be produced in each period are forecasts. Demand for ruminant feed rises in winter in most regions, when pastures fade. In poultry feed, placement schedules and holiday periods drive demand. If the demand forecast is too high, the mill holds more stock than it needs and the storage cost is wasted. If it is too low, an urgent purchase has to be made on the market in an expensive month.",{"p":29},"That is why the sales team's demand forecasts should feed into the plan and be compared with actual sales at every update. If the gap between forecast and actual stays in the same direction for several months, the forecasting method needs correcting. Having purchasing, sales and formulation talk over the same plan speeds up that correction.",{"h2":31},"Forecasts can be wrong",{"p":33},"All of this rests on price forecasts, and price forecasts are often wrong. If corn stays at 9,400 TRY in the fourth month instead of 10,200, every tonne bought today and stored for three months will have cost 9,570 TRY, a loss of 170 TRY a tonne. That is why it is better to run multi-period planning with several scenarios rather than a single forecast.",{"p":35},"A method that works well in practice is this. A base scenario, a low-price scenario and a high-price scenario are prepared. The plan is solved for each and the recommended purchase quantities are compared. The quantity recommended in all three scenarios is a purchase that can be made with confidence. The part where the scenarios differ widely is the risky part, and the decision there depends on the company's appetite for risk. Some companies split that part into several pieces and spread it over time.",{"h2":37},"How often to update?",{"p":39},"A multi-period plan is not made once and left. It should be solved again every month with new prices, new forecasts and actual usage. The first month's decisions are carried out, while the later months' decisions stay as a road map and are reviewed at every update. This rolling approach keeps the long view while adapting to short-term change.",{"p":41},"OptiFormula Ultimate runs forward-looking planning for weekly or monthly periods. It solves price projections for future periods, forward contracts, silo limits and periodic feed demand together. The purchasing team can then decide by looking at the whole planning horizon, not only at today's price.",{"p":43},"There is no single answer to whether to buy at harvest or in spring. The answer depends on the price gap, the cost of storage, silo space and what the formulas will need in those months. A plan that sees all of these together gives a much firmer footing than a decision based on gut feeling.",1794234580340]